We make assumptions all the time in order to deal with day-to-day activities, interactions, and tasks. They can be right, or they can be wrong. We could try to check them all before proceeding, which would be prudent, it seems, but how can we possibly do that? We wouldn't get anything done!
"Our company has been holding its market share for several years, and we have great customer loyalty. We can continue using the manufacturing and marketing methods that have worked so well in the past, and concentrate on developing new products that will serve our customers."
This is the assumption of stability over time. What was true yesterday is mostly true today, and will probably also be true tomorrow. Change does happen, but it happens slowly and regularly.
It takes me 35 minutes to commute to the office. I've learned this from experience over the years. If I leave the house 40 minutes before I need to be there, I'll be on time for my appointments there. But recently I've begun to notice that going through the center of town tends to get me behind a traffic jam, not just on Fridays around noon, or during rush hours, but almost any time of day. I can't count on that 35 minute commute any more. There are just more people living and working in this town, and there are more cars on the road.
What was true yesterday will not necessarily be true today, or tomorrow. Things change. Usually gradually, like a candle burning down; other times suddenly, unexpectedly, like a draft blowing out the flame.
In December, 2005, Wired magazine published and article about how the rising price of gasoline could actually be beneficial, by making it economically feasible to develop alternative energy technologies that are initially more expensive than current ones. The three scenarios the author considered involved the price of crude oil at $20-30 a barrel, $30-70 a barrel, and $70 and up per barrel. Today's price, at over $110 a barrel, was at top of the range of reasonable expectations just three years ago.
Widely shared assumptions are useful in some ways. They provide coherence for discourse and action. They can also become problematic blind spots for a community, an organization, or a society.
So one type of shared assumption is about stability: "How things are is how they will continue to be." A similar assumption is about stable change, or growth: "Prices of stocks are increasing about 6% per year, except for short-term market volatility." The long-term growth rate itself seems stable.
A different assumption about change, however, is more ominous, and important: "Some things may suddenly change in unexpected and irrevocable ways." For example, by the time we get clear as a global community of human beings that carbon dioxide and similar gases have set in motion catastrophic planetary climate changes, including liquefied ice caps, widespread coastal flooding, destructive storms and droughts, and damaged food chains, it may be too late to generate the corrective action needed (as individuals, organizations, and governments) to head off those climate changes. And under those stressful conditions, organizational innovation and international cooperation may become even more difficult.
So this is not assuming stability, nor predictable growth any more; it's considering the possibility of discontinuous, relatively sudden, irreversible change. By the time we discover that our earlier assumptions were wrong, it's very hard to make use of that new understanding.
Maybe it's not too late, but there is probably not much time left to shift our human social behavior appropriately. What's encouraging is that a lot of people and organizations are thinking about climate change, and communicating about it. One actually senses the beginning of a tipping-point shift in awareness and collaborative action on a planetary scale.
I click the link on my computer and gaze at the picture of my newborn grandson. I wonder about the world this boy will grow up in. And I wonder if you see that picture, too, or if what you see is a page-full of random numbers. So this note is to check with you about my assumptions. Do you see what I see?
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5 comments:
Interestingly enough I never - well, rarely - assume stability. My life has been one of unpredictability and change. I, on some level, am always anticipating change. In fact I would say my assumption is that nothing is permanent or truly stable - the other side of the stability coin. As a result of my mental framework I am often ahead of myself planning for alternative responses to the unknown or unforeseen. My husband differs from me in this manner as he expects things to be relatively constant. We bump up against each other a bit as I plan for the "what ifs" and he is content with "what is, will be". I think there needs to be a healthy blend of the two.
I am working with a non-profit organization. The current economic crises of the nation, and more specifically California, threatens significant change to the non-profit world. The organization must plan for the possibility of that change while simultaneously continuing to offer their programs as if everything will stay the same. This requires a dual awareness: on the present and on what’s coming. It is analogous, in my experience, to skateboarding or kayaking. A constant awareness of one’s immediate balance in interaction with the road or current must be accompanied by looking forward to where the road or river is going and the obstacles that await. A singular focus on the present, or on the future, appears to be a recipe for disaster.
Thanks, Rochelle! I suppose this is why humans and related beings have evolved two eyes, instead of one. Each eye has a different angle of view. The difference between them could be confusing and disorienting. One would think there would be a constant battle in our brains between the left optical information and the right.
Instead, we have also evolved the ability to use both perspectives--not just as equally relevant points of view, but to actually gain an awareness of depth, of three-dimensional space. This ability has great advantages for survival, so it has become part of our genetic heritage.
Similarly, the ability to apprehend both stability and the possibility of sudden change could be disorienting, or enlightening. The two views together generate an awareness of existence as a continuing flow of actuality and potentiality. This awareness gives us great power--to survive, create, and occasionally to giggle. In other words, to be human.
So, of course, we are attracted to, and often marry our opposite. We struggle sometimes, and we learn to learn from each other. We become more than two individuals--we become a relationship, or as Herb Shepard used to say, an interperson.
Hello Saul,
Let me begin by saying that I am so happy that you are blogging!
In response to your description of Assumption 1, I find myself making connections to my recent readings of buddhism and am wondering about the possibility of looking at what you call the Assumption of Stability , or stable growth, in the framework offered in buddhism. Now my understandings are primitive at best, but what I'm gleening from my reading is that it is common for humans to resist the reality of unpredictability in this human existence, primarily out of fear. And that when we are able to more fully accept and embrace this reality, we are better able to respond to change, perhaps even earlier considering we are not spending time resisting. What are your thoughts on this connection? Are they assumptions, or human "fear factors" at work when we resist change? Of both? Or more?
Looking forward to your response.
Sincerely,
Annette Zucconi-Montez
Great question, Annette; and I thanks for your encouragement!
My sense is that during times of chaotic change we tend to pay attention more, but our ability to perceive accurately may decline.
The perspective of Buddhism and meditative practices can be very useful. We can learn to maintain awareness of in-the-moment events around us and within us as they unfold, and to respond appropriately with calm and compassion. Meditation and the martial arts tend to support this discipline of mindfulness.
And the non-dualist perspective teaches that all change takes place within a larger reality--one that does not change...
I look forward to your future comments!
Saul, it is nice to connect with you through your blog and contemplate the realm that occupies your mind.
I have been delving into the past experience of humanity rather intensively lately, while researching material for my website, www.humanpast.net, and one thing is very clear: we have experienced both stability and discontinuity over the long term. Thousands of years have gone by with hardly any changes in the ways that we have lived, and then suddenly massive disruption has occurred, sometimes on a global scale, as happened towards the end of the last great ice age when the shape of all the continents changed radically.
I would say that the wise attitude about how the future will look is really to expect discontinuity, and even plan for it, while striving to maintain the equilibrium and stasis that seems to be at the core of the human psyche.
Kelly Hart
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